“L’esorbitante privilegio” del dollaro sta giungendo al termine?



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1. In breve

Il dollaro statunitense (USD, U.S. Dollar) ha costituito e rappresentato la valuta di riserva dominante nel mondo per quasi un secolo. Pertanto, al giorno d’oggi, molti investitori, anche al di fuori degli Stati Uniti, hanno costruito ed acquistato dimestichezza con dei considerevoli sovrappesi in dollari americani nei loro portafogli. In ogni caso, noi crediamo che il dollaro potrebbe presto perdere il suo status privilegiato di valuta dominante nel mondo (la quale potrebbe vedere il proprio deprezzamento nel medio termine) a causa di motivi strutturali e di impedimenti ciclici.

In tal modo, la diversificazione dell’esposizione del dollaro attraverso una maggiore ponderazione posta su altre valute, tanto in ulteriori mercati ben sviluppati quanto specificamente in Asia, così come sui metalli preziosi, sono operazioni che acquisiscono senso oggi. Questa diversificazione può essere raggiunta tramite una strategia che mantenga gli asset sottostanti in un portafoglio di investimento, ma che al contempo modifichi l’amalgama di valute all’interno di quello stesso portafoglio. Questo è un approccio completamente su misura, che può essere personalizzato per venire incontro alle esigenze singolari di ciaschedun cliente.

2. L’ascesa del dollaro americano

È comune percezione ed opinione che il dollaro statunitense abbia superato la sterlina della Gran Bretagna come valuta internazionale di riserva in tutto il mondo attraverso la firma degli accordi di Bretton Woods, venuti in essere dopo la Seconda Guerra Mondiale [elaborati, discussi e firmati prima del termine di quest’ultima, precisamente nel 1944, essi videro la vittoria del “gold exchange standard” a dispetto della proposta di Keynes di una moneta internazionale (non unica), N.d.R.]. Tuttavia, la realtà è che il valore della sterlina era stato eroso già per molti decenni, prima che fossero concordati i patti a Bretton Woods. L’ascesa del dollaro alla sua fama ed alla sua preminenza internazionali fu alimentata dalla costruzione del sistema della Federal Reserve poco più di un secolo fa e dall’emersione economica americana a seguito della Prima Guerra Mondiale.

Il sistema della Federal Reserve contribuì a stabilire sia dei mercati di capitali più maturi sia una politica monetaria coordinata a livello nazionale, due importanti pilastri per i Paesi in valuta di riserva. Essere l’unità di conto mondiale ha conferito agli Stati Uniti d’America ciò che l’ex Ministro delle Finanze francese Valery d’Estaing ha definito un «esorbitante privilegio», dato dalla possibilità e capacità di acquistare importazioni, di emettere debiti nella propria valuta e di gestire persistenti deficit apparentemente senza conseguenze.
3. Il fulcro dello spostamento

Non c’è nulla che possa suggerire che il dominio del dollaro americano possa perpetuarsi e rimanere in eterno. Infatti, non incidentalmente, la valuta internazionale dominante è cambiata molte volte nel corso della storia, riportando indietro le lancette dell’orologio di migliaia di anni, al momento in cui il centro economico mondiale si è spostato.

Dopo la fine della Seconda Guerra Mondiale, gli Stati Uniti erano accreditati come il Paese con la maggiore quota del PIL mondiale, corrispondente ad oltre il 25% del totale. Questo numero raggiunge il picco di oltre il 40%, nel momento in cui si includano le potenze dell’Europa Occidentale. Da allora, il principale motore e locomotiva della crescita economica si è spostato verso Oriente, ovverosia verso l’Asia, a spese degli Stati Uniti e dell’intero Occidente in generale.

La Cina rappresenta l’epicentro di questo recente moto economico, guidato dalla forte crescita del Paese e dall’impegno di quest’ultimo nell’applicazione e nel temprante irrobustimento delle riforme interne. Nel corso degli ultimi settant’anni, la Cina ha quadruplicato la propria quota nel PIL mondiale, arrivando attorno al 20% – praticamente la medesima quota degli Stati Uniti -, senza considerare che si prevede un’ulteriore crescita di questa quota negli anni a venire. La Cina non è più meramente un produttore di beni a basso costo, essendo che una quota crescente degli utili aziendali sta provenendo da settori “ad alto valore aggiunto”, come la tecnologia.

L'immagine può contenere: testo
L'immagine può contenere: testo

Al di là della Cina, le economie dei Paesi sud-orientali dell’Asia, ivi inclusa l’India, posseggono e sono trascinati da degli impetuosi venti secolari, guidati da un trend demografico più giovane [rispetto a quello dell’Occidente europeo e degli Stati Uniti, N.d.R.] e da un proliferante know-how tecnologico. Nello specifico, la zona economica asiatica – dalla penisola arabica e dalla Turchia ad Ovest, sino ad arrivare al Giappone ed alla Nuova Zelanda ad Est, dalla Russia al Nord sino all’Australia al Sud – rappresenta ad oggi il 50% del PIL globale e ben due terzi della crescita economica nel mondo.

Dei 30 trilioni di dollari che sono stati stimati nella crescita dei consumi da parte della classe media fra il 2015 ed il 2030, soltanto un trilione di dollari si stima che proverrà dalle odierne economie occidentali. A mano a mano che questa regione crescerà, la quota delle transazioni effettuate con una valuta diversa dai dollari americani inevitabilmente incrementerà: un processo che, molto probabilmente, andrà ad erodere la “Reserveness” [termine traducibile in italiano con la parafrasi “Essenza contingente della specifica moneta degli USA nella sua qualità di valuta di riserva”, N.d.R.] del dollaro, anche se il dollaro non verrà sostituito come valuta internazionale dominante.

In altre parole, nei decenni a venire, noi pensiamo che l’economia mondiale effettuerà una transizione dal dominio degli Stati Uniti e del loro dollaro verso un sistema dove l’Asia eserciterà un potere ben superiore. Nello spazio valutario, ciò significa che l’USD – con ogni probabilità – perderà il suo valore se comparato ad un paniere di altre valute, ove sono inclusi i beni preziosi come l’oro.
4. Il declino del ruolo del dollaro è già in atto?

Dati recenti sulle riserve di valuta detenute dalle varie Banche Centrali in giro per il mondo, suggeriscono che questo spostamento potrebbe già essere in corso d’opera. Come percentuale delle riserve complessive di una Banca Centrale, il ruolo del dollaro americano sta vivendo un declino finanche dalla Grande Recessione (come mostrano i grafici). I dati più recenti sul flusso delle riserve della Banca Centrale suggeriscono che, per la prima volta sin dall’introduzione dell’euro nel 1999, le Banche Centrali simultaneamente hanno venduto dollari ed acquistato euro.

Le Banche Centrali di tutto il mondo, inoltre, stanno aumentando le loro riserve auree, ad un ritmo tanto forte da non essere mai stato registrato prima come tale. L’anno 2018 ha visto la più forte domanda di oro, proveniente dalle Banche Centrali, fin dal 1971 [anno della rescissione unilaterale degli accordi di Bretton Woods da parte dell’allora presidente degli Stati Uniti Richard Nixon: si trattò della nascita della Moneta Fiat, N.d.R.], ed una somma di quattro quarti degli acquisti di oro è la più alta che si sia mai registrata. Dal nostro punto di vista, tutto ciò ha un senso: l’oro è, del resto, una fonte stabile di valore, con migliaia di anni di fiducia da parte degli uomini che la supportano e permettono.

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5. Le Guerre Commerciali hanno delle conseguenze a lungo termine

L’attuale amministrazione degli Stati Uniti ha messo in discussione gli accordi raggiunti con quasi tutti i suoi maggiori partner – le tariffe con Cina, Messico ed Unione Europea, la rinegoziazione dell’accordo NAFTA, e l’abbandono del Partenariato TransPacifico. Un’amministrazione americana più contraddittoria potrebbe anche incoraggiare i Paesi a ridurre la loro dipendenza dal dollaro americano nei commerci. Attualmente, l’85% di tutte le transazioni valutarie coinvolgono la valuta USA, nonostante che gli Stati Uniti rappresentino e costituiscano soltanto il 25% circa del PIL globale.

I Paesi di tutto il mondo, già adesso, stanno sviluppando dei meccanismi di pagamenti volti ad evitare l’usufrutto del dollaro statunitense. Questi sistemi sono ancora piccoli ed in via di sviluppo, ma probabilmente si tratta di una storia strutturale che è destinata ad estendersi al di là di una singola e determinata amministrazione.

In un recente discorso sul ruolo internazionale dell’euro, il Capo Economista della Bank for International Settlements, Claudio Borio, ha sollevato la questione dei possibili benefici del prezzare il petrolio in euro, dicendo: «Il commercio e la liquidazione del petrolio in euro andrebbero a spostare i pagamenti dalla valuta del dollaro a quella dell’euro, e per ciò stesso sposterebbero il regolamento definitivo per il sistema Targer2 dell’euro. Ciò potrebbe limitare la portata della politica estera degli Stati Uniti, nella misura in cui essa sfrutta i pagamenti in dollari».

Anche la Banca Centrale Europea ha alluso a questo tema in un suo recente report, all’interno del quale si afferma che «le crescenti preoccupazioni sull’impatto delle tensioni commerciali internazionali, e le sfide al multilateralismo, ivi compresa l’imposizione di sanzioni unilaterali, paiono aver dato supporto alla posizione globale dell’euro».
6. Noi possiamo dare una mano

Noi crediamo di trovarci nel pieno di un’importantissima giuntura storica. Su una base reale, il dollaro si trova allo stato attuale di più del 10% al di sopra della sua media a lungo termine, e su una base nominale sta invero calando da ben cinquant’anni (come da grafico di cui sotto).

L'immagine può contenere: testo

Dati i persistenti e crescenti deficit negli Stati Uniti (in termini sia fiscali che commerciali), noi crediamo che il dollaro americano potrebbe diventare vulnerabile in merito ad una perdita di valore rispetto ad un più diversificato paniere di valute, ivi incluso l’oro. Mentre noi effettuiamo un’analisi dei portafogli dei clienti, vediamo che molti di loro hanno un’esposizione in dollari USA molto maggiore di quella che noi riteniamo invece essere prudente.

In questa fase del ciclo economico, noi crediamo che tale esposizione debba essere maggiormente diversificata. In molti casi, la nostra raccomandazione sarebbe probabilmente quella di porre una più alta ponderazione nei confronti di altre valute del G10, valute asiatiche ed oro (si veda il grafico). Parla con il tuo consulente di JP Morgan per rivedere il tuo portafoglio, e per ricevere maggiori informazioni su come diversificarlo.

Nessuna descrizione della foto disponibile.

(di Craig Cohen – da JP Morgan – Traduzione di Lorenzo Franzoni)

L’articolo “L’esorbitante privilegio” del dollaro sta giungendo al termine? originale proviene da Oltre la Linea.



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  63. Sexual depression, like sexual indulgence, is no different from physical health. It is a bad thing to go back and forth between depression and indulgence. Click:oral sex.

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  67. 威而鋼真實心得體驗ptt 威而鋼效果真的很屌,就怕女友試了回不去. 台灣老司機藥局2020-06-16. 近期在ptt板塊中看到很多鄉民在說威而鋼效果很屌. 所以我也來發文-威而鋼

  68. 本站針對犀利士效果,犀利士評價,犀利士副作用問題等,進行全盤解析。犀利士?作為男性壯陽保健的首選保健食品,受美國食藥管理局核可,具有顯著延長男性-犀利士

  69. 威而鋼真實心得體驗ptt 威而鋼效果真的很屌,就怕女友試了回不去. 台灣老司機藥局2020-06-16. 近期在ptt板塊中看到很多鄉民在說威而鋼效果很屌. 所以我也來發文-威而鋼

  70. Cialis is used to treat male erectile dysfunction (ED). Its pharmacology is to relax the smooth muscles of the corpus cavernosum, which facilitates rapid congestion of the penis to achieve a satisfactory firm erection-Japanese rattan

  71. Weiergang’s real experience experience ptt Weiergang’s effect is really awkward, I’m afraid that my girlfriend will not be able to go back after trying it. Taiwan’s Old Driver Pharmacy 2020-06-16. Recently, I saw many villagers talking about Weier in the PTT section. The steel effect is very awkward. So I will also post-Cialis

  72. Priligy (English name: Priligy Chemical name: Dapoxetine hydrochloride) is currently the only drug developed for premature ejaculation (PE) and the only premature ejaculation approved by the State Food and Drug Administration (CEDA)-Japanese rattan

  73. Sildenafil (English: Sildenafil), also translated as sildenafil, is a drug for male erectile dysfunction accidentally invented during the development of drugs for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases. For controlled drugs, they can be prescribed for use only after a doctor’s diagnosis. Japanese rattan

  74. This site provides a comprehensive analysis of the effects of Cialis, evaluation of Cialis, and side effects of Cialis. Cialis? As the first-choice health food for men’s impotence health care, it is approved by the US Food and Drug Administration and has a significant prolongation for men-Japanese rattan

  75. Priligy (English name: Priligy Chemical name: Dapoxetine hydrochloride) is currently the only drug developed for premature ejaculation (PE) and the only premature ejaculation approved by the State Food and Drug Administration (CEDA)-Japanese rattan

  76. Viagra (Taiwan name: Viagra) is an oral treatment drug developed by Pfizer, USA. It is used to treat erectile dysfunction and premature ejaculation, and has a very significant improvement in erectile dysfunction and premature ejaculation–Japanese rattan

  77. Viagra (Taiwan name: Viagra) is an oral treatment drug developed by Pfizer, USA. It is used to treat erectile dysfunction and premature ejaculation, and has a very significant improvement in erectile dysfunction and premature ejaculation.

  78. The secret story before Weiergang rescued men. 2018/09/06 Editor/. 20 years ago, Weiergang came out and saved the sex lives of many men (and their sexual partners). However, in Veergang, the men’s bedside table was captured.

  79. Cialis, also known as taranafil (English names: cialisr, chinacialisr), is the world’s three major aphrodisiac–? Produced by Eli Lilly Pharmaceuticals in the United States. Its efficacy is as long as 36 hours. It is the first choice for sexual dysfunction.

  80. Xu Lanfang reminded male friends that in addition to Granville, medicines such as Cialis and Viratron are all prescription drugs. Therefore, they must be prescribed by a doctor and taken after instructions. Do not take other people’s medicines casually.

  81. The secret story before Weiergang rescued men. 2018/09/06 Editor/. 20 years ago, Weiergang came out and saved the sex lives of many men (and their sexual partners). However, in Veergang, the men’s bedside table was captured.

  82. The ingredient of Japanese rattan contains red root grass, which is pungent and sweet and warm in nature. It can replenish the life gate and nourish vital energy. The red root grass can activate the body’s vitality, activate testosterone, and can effectively repair self-damaged cells.

  83. mallwatch Swiss replica Designer watches British isles Rolex timepiece, Cartier reproduce timepieces are should-have designer watches for males, that will be purposeful aside from extremely elegant.

  84. This site provides a comprehensive analysis of the effects of Cialis, evaluation of Cialis, and side effects of Cialis. Cialis? As the first-choice health food for men’s impotence health care, it is approved by the US Food and Drug Administration and has a significant prolongation for men.

  85. Cialis is used to treat male erectile dysfunction (ED). Its pharmacology is to relax the smooth muscles of the corpus cavernosum, which facilitates rapid congestion of the penis to achieve a satisfactory firm erection.

  86. Viagra (Taiwan name: Viagra) is an oral treatment drug developed by Pfizer, USA. It is used to treat erectile dysfunction and premature ejaculation, and has a very significant improvement in erectile dysfunction and premature ejaculation.

  87. Cialis is used to treat male erectile dysfunction (ED). Its pharmacology is to relax the smooth muscles of the corpus cavernosum, which facilitates rapid congestion of the penis to achieve a satisfactory firm erection.

  88. Xu Lanfang reminded male friends that in addition to Granville, medicines such as Cialis and Viratron are all prescription drugs. Therefore, they must be prescribed by a doctor and taken after instructions. Do not take other people’s medicines casually.

  89. If you can’t even get an erection, eating Granville is useless! Xu Lanfang explained that male erections need to receive sexual stimulation, such as A-films, A-books, and other sexual desire content, at which time the brain will release.

  90. Viagra (Taiwan name: Viagra) is an oral treatment drug developed by Pfizer, USA. It is used to treat erectile dysfunction and premature ejaculation, and has a very significant improvement in erectile dysfunction and premature ejaculation.

  91. Hi Basically, the blue Viagra is a well-known old medicine, while the yellow Cialis has a long-lasting effect. As for Levitron, the side effects caused by the lower dose are less, so that Taiwan’s annual sales can be expected to reach. Multi-billion dollar market.

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